A United State government-sponsored opinion survey conducted in Nigeria has declared ANPP's presidential candidate Mohamodu Buhari as the leading presidential candidate, Empowered Newswire reports.

 

A copy of the US govt Survey was released to Empowered Newswire, a US-based Nigerian news agency, yesterday showing that the report is marked as "sensitive but unclassified," and released March 19, 2007, by the US State Department's Office of Research in Washington, DC.

 

 

According to it, after comparing the ratings of the three main presidential candidates, based on what the Nigerians polled had to say "overall, nearly four-in-ten predict Buhari to win, while three-in-ten predict a Yaradua victory."

 

But it was not all positive for the former military head of state as the polls warned that the ANPP/Buhari's campaign has been limited to the North

 

While the POP rated Atiku's chances overall behind Buhari and Yaradua, it noted clearly that "Atiku supporters could determine outcome of election"

 

The US government polling was conducted between January 17 and 27, using what the report called "a reputable Nigerian research firm" and carrying out "face-to-face interviews" with 2500 adults Nigerians in Lagos, Rivers, Kano and Enugu states, and the Federal Capital Territory in Abuja.

 

Empowered Newswire reports that a senior US State Department official who spoke on condition of anonymity, explained yesterday why the US government conducts such opinion analysis. According to him it is "to understand a little-bit better the views of the people." The official said the survey is a tool useful for government uses and also business interests and it is part of the US State Department's objective "to understand the world."

 

The official said it is not only in Nigeria that such polling has been conducted, but such analysis are done "with some frequency around the world." But it is not clear whether such an analysis was conducted also in 2003, although it is known that the 2007 elections are taken as more important because it is the election that will see a transfer of power from a civilian leader to another at the national level, and it is happening for the first time in Nigeria, all things equal.

 

However the official says while the US does this more regularly in some countries, there are also countries where it is done just once.

 

The report of the polling stated that :"Polling data from late January in key Nigerian states indicates that although most Nigerian newspapers continue to refer to the ruling party candidate (PDP/Yar’adua) as the front runner, the opposition ANPP/ Buhari ticket may be more popular."

 

Nonetheless it was noted that it currently looks "doubtful that Buhari, whose support is mainly in the North, can pick up enough votes in the South to meet the electoral requirements for victory," which is the highest number of votes and also 25% of the ballot cast in 24 states of the federation.

 

The US public opinion poll asked the 2500 respondents "what presidential party they would be voting for," and 37 percent of Nigerians polled in key states name Muhammadu Buhari’s All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), while 29 percent name the governing Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and 15 percent Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s Action Congress (AC)."

 

This polling confirms the analysis of the federal government delegations to the US in the last few weeks that ANPP's Buhari is the main threat to its PDP candidate.

But the POP report also showed that support for each party splits along regional lines. It said that "three-quarters of those in Kano and a plurality in Abuja intend to vote for the ANPP.
Meanwhile, the south is a contest between the PDP and the AC: the
PDP currently holds the lead in Enugu and Rivers, whereas the AC is
slightly more popular in Lagos."

 

In addition the US State Department POP added that "Nigerians’ party preferences shape who they expect will win the presidency. Overall, nearly four-in-ten predict Buhari to win, while three-in-ten predict a Yaradua victory. "

 

Vice President Atiku Abubakar's fortunes, according to the US POP are being affected by his struggles with the sitting federal government. Said the POP report "Nigerians are less confident in Atiku’s success, perhaps due to the numerous obstacles his campaign is facing; indeed, it is not clear that
his name will even be on the ballot."

 

According to the table provided with the report while 37% or almost 4 in every 10 Nigerian see Buhari as the next president, 29% see Yaradua and 12% see Atiku as the next president. 4% see Kalu and 1% see Ojukwu as the next president.

 

Furthermore, the POP stated that "regionally, views correspond to patterns of party support, with many
more in the North anticipating a victory by the ANPP’s Buhari."

Using character traits to measure the presidential candidates, again ANPP's Buhari’s appeal is dominant. Said the POP report "Nigerian perceptions of candidates’ character traits may help
explain support for candidates. Of all the candidates, Buhari is most frequently associated with integrity,
leadership, accountability, honesty and transparency."The report added that "Nigerians are more skeptical about these qualities in Atiku and Yaradua."

The POP highlighted the possibility of Vice President Atiku's supporters playing the decider role in the presidential election, when it reported that the VP's supporters "could determine outcome of election."

 

This is because, as the POP observed, " Nigerian election law requires the winner to
obtain the highest number of votes and win at least 25% of the ballots cast in two-thirds (24) of the thirty-six
states. Currently, Buhari holds an overall lead, yet he has little southern support. If Atiku is unable to get his
name on the ballot, AC supporters, most of whom are in the South, could help Buhari meet the electoral
threshold required for victory."

In case Atiku is not on the ballot, the US government POP noted that "an analysis comparing AC/Atiku supporters’ views of both Buhari and Yaradua sheds light on which candidate they may support. Those in the South view Yaradua more favorably on most aspects, while those in the North lean towards Buhari."

 

Said the report : "Thus, while Buhari may pick up some votes from Atiku supporters, the data suggests that those in the South, where he needs the most support, tend to look more favorably upon Yaradua."

However, the POP also reported that  ANPP's Buhari’s campaign limited to North.
 

Said the report: "Buhari’s limited reach with his ANPP campaign is one additional indicator of
his struggle to gain a foothold in the South. Although 72 percent of Nigerians
mention that they have come in contact with campaign activities, those in the
South indicate little exposure to the ANPP"

 

Commenting on the voters registration, the POP found that the voters registration "although delayed, was
successful. Although there was considerable criticism of the registration process, eight-in-ten report being
registered to vote."

 

SEE BELOW HOW THE POP WAS CONDUCTED

 

 APPENDIX A. HOW THE SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED
Poll results are from a January 17- January 27, 2007 public opinion survey conducted by a reputable
Nigerian research firm. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 2500 adult Nigerians (aged 18-60) in
five key states: Lagos, Enugu, Abuja, Kano, and Rivers. These were intended to be representative of five of
Nigeria’s six regions, with only the North East left unrepresented. Sixty percent of the interviews were
conducted in urban locations and forty percent were conducted in rural areas.
As a guideline for interpretation, in 19 cases out of 20, results based on random samples of this size will
differ by no more than about 3 percentage points in either direction from what would have been obtained by
polling all residents in the target areas. The margin of error for differences between regional and
demographic subgroups is larger. In addition to sampling error, the practical difficulties of conducting a
survey of public opinion may introduce other sources of error into the results