FOOLING PEOPLE SOME OF THE TIME: FORMER US ENVOY
TAKES OBASANJO TO THE CLEANERS
HERMAN J. COHEN
The president of
Nigeria, Olusegun Obasanjo, is America's friend.
The Bush Administration admires his leadership in
promoting conflict resolution, peacekeeping, and
democracy in Africa. Some American friends are promoting
him for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Unfortunately, Obasanjo's role in Nigeria's internal
affairs has been far less laudable. His energy policies
have done little to alleviate Nigeria's crushing poverty
and social unrest. Moreover, as Obasanjo enters the
final months of his second four-year term, he is
subverting his country's fragile democracy in order to
prolong his personal power.
Obasanjo began to monopolize power from the day he
entered office in 1999. He kept the oil portfolio for
himself so that he could use Nigeria's vast oil wealth
for political ends. All politicians were beholden to him
for money. He established an anti-corruption commission.
But the record shows that his friends were exempt and
his enemies were investigated whether or not they had
dirt on their hands. He also manipulated the awarding of
contracts and mineral concessions to intimidate
potential rivals.
In late 2005, Obasanjo began promoting the idea that
only he could complete the reforms he had initiated as
president. It was necessary, therefore, to amend the
Constitution to enable him to run for a third term. He
launched a major campaign to pressure the state
governors and the two houses of the Federal Parliament
to support the amendment. Bribes of as much as $400,000
were reportedly offered to senators and representatives.
Governors who refused to cooperate were threatened with
impeachment for corruption.
Fortunately, Obasanjo had become so unpopular that
the members of Parliament knew that voting for a third
term would be political suicide. The constitutional
amendment failed in the Senate and thus died before it
could get off the ground.
But instead of accepting this verdict, Obasanjo
decided to choose his own successor in a way that would
allow him to manipulate power after leaving office.
First, he used the anti-corruption police to intimidate
presidential aspirants like Vice President Abubacar
Atiku and a former president, Ibrahim Babangida.
Then he short-circuited the primary elections in the
governing People's Democratic Party to impose his own
nominee as the party's presidential candidate, the
governor of Katsina state, Umaru Yar'Adua. He also
imposed an amendment to the governing party's rules
requiring that the chairman of the board of governors be
a former head of state. Obasanjo is now the only person
eligible for that post. From there, he clearly aims to
manipulate power after he leaves office.
If Yar'Adua wins the election, he will need to obey
Obasanjo's directives and appoint Obasanjo's people if
he wants a second term.
Obasanjo is also doing everything to make it
impossible for the vice president to run. Atiku has been
ejected from the party, which resulted in Obasanjo
declaring the vice presidency to be vacant. Fortunately,
the still-independent courts declared Obasanjo's action
unconstitutional.
While Obasanjo engages in undemocratic tactics, the
Independent National Electoral Commission, which is
under the president's thumb, is stalling in its
preparations for the voting in April. Clearly, the
objective is to prevent new voters from registering
because they would be most likely to vote against
Obasanjo's candidate.
In addition to his efforts to undermine democracy,
Obasanjo has little to boast about after eight years in
power. There has been no noticeable reduction in poverty
levels despite the surge in oil revenues from Nigeria's
daily production of 2.5 million barrels. The
government-owned oil refineries are producing less now
than at the beginning of his first term.
Other government-owned industries and utilities
continue to be moribund. Obasanjo has done nothing to
alleviate the deep insufficiency of electric power, a
problem that has caused many factories to close,
including the French investor Michelin Tires.
Retired civil servants and local business suppliers
are not getting paid. Violence in the oil-producing
Delta region has grown worse. As much as 20 percent of
Nigeria's oil exports are being stolen or disrupted by
the insurgency.
Finally, Obasanjo has hardly dented the colossal
problem of corruption. As much as $600 billion in ill-
gotten gains sit in foreign bank accounts while the
rural farmers live on less than a dollar a day.
The voters are not likely to be fooled. But the April
election may not be the first in
Nigeria to be rigged by the incumbent, if it
actually takes place.